The bad news? The unemployment in Central Florida sits at 12.1 percent and the national unemployment rate recently rose to 9.9 percent. The good news? Locally, that’s down from 12.5 percent in the previous measurement and local experts think that unemployment numbers here have peaked. Still, in both the short and long-term, where will relief come from for residents of Central Florida? The answer may reside in the numbers.

“As far as the numbers are concerned, there isn’t one thing in particular that causes them to continue to rise; rather, it’s more like there’s nothing specific yet that would cause them to improve,” says Gary Earl, president and CEO of Workforce Central Florida.

According to Roger Lear, president of OrlandoJobs.com, the numbers point to what may have been the Achilles’ heel of Central Florida: our economy was based mainly around tourism and construction. In 2007, before the economic downturn, the unemployment rate for the year was 3.8 percent. “This very clearly shows how much the Central Florida region relies on the construction, hospitality and financial industry,” he says.

Even though numbers don’t officially reflect the trend, Lear says that the amount of people underemployed has soared. This means individuals are well below their normal pay level and responsibilities - essentially in jobs just to have them. “If you put this group on the unemployment rolls, the unemployment rate would actually sit around 20 percent, or close to 190,000 people,” he says.

Luckily, the return to “normalcy” has begun, however slowly, as traditional Central Florida industries begin to hire again. “I think most industries have leveled off, except for construction,” says Lear. “We are seeing hiring again in hospitality, banking, manufacturing and sales opening up in many different industries.”

But Central Florida isn’t out of the woods just yet. “We’re still at or very close to the bottom of the labor market so the turnaround isn’t going to fully start to bloom until 2011,” says economist Dr. Sean Snaith, director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at UCF.

Leading the charge will be solid job growth in the healthcare and technology industries with numerous nursing and IT jobs opening. “Health has been an industry that has continued to grow throughout the recession in Florida,” says Snaith. “In many ways the ‘medical city’ is old news, but the reality is, it’s still in the early stages of build-out, so that’s going to continue to grow, expand and flourish as the economy recovers.”

In fact, because of the projects and momentum surrounding Central Florida, experts say the area is poised to recover faster than other regions of Florida. “Absolutely, we are, because of the combination of the positioning of Central Florida with emerging technologies, research facilities and the like - that will propel the economy to a fast pace compared to other areas,” says Earl.

And let’s not forget our topnotch tourism and convention industries. “As the national economy recovers, families will travel, and Orlando is still a world vacation destination,” says Lear.

To compliment health, technology and tourism, the growth in the small business arena is expected to provide thousands of new jobs as well, as more than 80 percent of the companies based here are small businesses. “The majority of job creation lies in small business,” says Snaith. “In the near term, meaning the rest of 2010, I don’t anticipate small business job creation to pick up dramatically but I do think we’ll stop losing jobs, however.”

As for the future, many economists are looking to returning to “normal” unemployment rates, or those below six percent, somewhere in the 2015-2018 timeframe.

In the meantime, Lear suggests local leaders begin supporting industries like health sciences and technology even more. “That way, when the next recession rolls through, we will have additional ‘recession proof industries’ that have high paying jobs and don’t rely on tourists and construction,” he says. “Central Florida has done a great job of attracting these types of companies and creating more industries.”

Article by Corey Gehrold